Saturday, October 01, 2005

The 7.4 Realistic Estimate

WHO tries to "calm" bird flu fear

While WHO's flu spokesman at the agency's Geneva headquarters did not say the 150 million prediction was wrong, he emphasized that 7.4 million deaths is a more realistic estimate.

Scientists have made predictions ranging from less than 2 million to 360 million. Last year, WHO's chief for the Asia-Pacific region predicted 100 million deaths, but until now that was the highest figure publicly mentioned by a WHO official.

"We're not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins," WHO influenza spokesman Dick Thompson said Friday.

"You could pick almost any number" until then, he said, adding that WHO "can't be dragged into further scaremongering."

(Calm: not showing or feeling nervousness, anger, or other emotions.)

Not so calm: Bird flu now "resistant" to main drug

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